The much-feared slide in international enrollments began before President Trump moved back into the White House.
The number of new international students coming to the United States dropped 7 percent last fall, according to the Institute of International Education’s annual “Open Doors” report released Monday. Declining interest in master’s and professional programs precipitated the fall of 2024 slowdown.
The slump is going to get much worse. A preliminary snapshot survey conducted by IIE and other global-education groups found new international enrollments plummeted another 17 percent this fall.
While the snapshot report is less comprehensive than “Open Doors” — the 825 institutions that responded account for about half of all international students — it has been a previously reliable predictor of the official census. The full survey includes data from 3,000 colleges.
That’s bad news for colleges as they stare down a demographic cliff domestically.
Foreign students are 6 percent of the college population but typically pay higher tuition rates and cover the full costs of their education themselves.
Engineering, computer science, and business programs could take a hit because many of their students come from overseas, particularly at the master’s level.
Nor is a downturn great for the nation’s economy. International students had a $43-billion impact in 2024, estimates NAFSA: Association of International Educators. While few Americans think this way, college degrees are one of the country’s top exports.
A post-Covid boom now looks like a bubble. Students deferred acceptances and postponed applications while border and health restrictions stopped global travel. As a result, there was an enormous amount of pent-up demand. Enrollments shot up by 80 percent in 2021.
The influx petered out. After a 14-percent increase in 2022, the number of new students was essentially flat in 2023.
But the bubble is still making its way through the system, with many in the big post-Covid cohorts still completing their degrees. Overall enrollments were up by 5 percent, to 1.2 million, in 2024.
Also contributing to the overall increase: Enrollments grew at the bachelor’s and doctoral levels, and there was a big spike in recent graduates staying in the United States to work after they earned their degrees. New graduates are included in the count because they’re on student visas.
The bigger picture: Don’t dismiss the adverse effects of Trump administration policies like visa revocations or a foreign-student cap. But they’re compounding existing international-enrollment challenges, not the sole cause.
Read more analysis of “Open Doors” and other international-education news in the Latitudes newsletter. It sends on Wednesdays and is free to subscribe.
