After further review, freshman enrollment increased last fall.
On Monday, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center announced that a “methodological error” had affected its previous calculation of the number of first-year students enrolling this past fall. In October, the center published its annual preliminary report stating that freshman enrollment had declined 5 percent compared with the fall of 2023, the first drop since the start of the pandemic. That eye-popping finding prompted a furious bout of hand-wringing about the impact of last year’s federal-aid crisis, not to mention the future of higher education.
But those numbers — based on data provided by 50 percent of colleges — were wrong. Doug Shapiro, the center’s executive director, said in a written statement on Monday that the methodological error “caused the mislabeling of certain students as dual-enrolled rather than as freshmen, and as a result, the number of freshmen was undercounted, and the number of dual-enrolled was overcounted.” That error also affected the center’s recent analysis of enrollment of 18-year-old freshmen this fall.
Shapiro said further research revealed that freshman enrollment had, in fact, increased this fall, but he did not say by how much. A spokesperson for the center declined to share more details via email on Monday, saying only that the center would release its Current Term Enrollment Estimates report, with data on freshman enrollment, on January 23. That report, which isn’t based on preliminary data, will include enrollment numbers from nearly all colleges. It uses different methodologies than the preliminary report, the center said, “to determine freshman enrollees.”
The center “acknowledges the importance and significance of its role in providing accurate and reliable research to the higher education community,” Shapiro wrote. “We deeply regret this error and are conducting a thorough review to understand the root cause and implement measures to prevent such occurrences in the future.”
The error also affected previous years’ preliminary enrollment reports, “but the effect was magnified this year because more high school students participated in dual enrollment programs,” according to information the center shared. The error, it said, affected only projections of freshman enrollment and dual-enrollment students — not the total number of undergraduates. The center said it was assessing its methodology for its preliminary enrollment reports, and that it would not publish the next one “until the revised methodology has been thoroughly vetted.”
Some enrollment leaders on Monday expressed frustration with the center. “It’s unconscionable for the National Student Clearinghouse to not check their data in their rush to make headlines,” Jon Boeckenstedt, vice provost for enrollment management at Oregon State University, posted on X.
In a written statement, Under Secretary of Education James Kvaal said, “We are encouraged and relieved that updated data from the National Student Clearinghouse shows freshman enrollment is up this school year.” He added that 5-percent more students are receiving federal aid this year, though that number seems to reflect recent changes in federal-aid methodology that expanded eligibility for Pell Grants among all students — not just freshmen.
Shapiro cautioned in October that the preliminary enrollment numbers would likely look different from the final tallies, after more colleges submitted their data. Indeed, according to the center’s preliminary findings in October 2023, freshman enrollment was down 3.6 percent from 2022. But the final numbers, gathered from all participating institutions, showed that freshman enrollment increased by 0.8 percent.
So, for now, perhaps the center’s announcement stands as a reminder: Preliminary numbers, for one reason or another, aren’t necessarily the final word.
