Prospective International Students Show New Reluctance to Study in the U.S.

The anti-globalist policies of President Trump and increased isolationist rhetoric in American politics have worried college leaders that fewer international students will want to study in the United States. While it’s still unclear whether enrollments of international students will actually decline, a report released Monday indicates colleges indeed have reason for concern.

Nearly one in three prospective international students surveyed said they had less interest in studying in the United States because of the current political climate, according to the report by Royall & Company, a division of EAB (formerly the Education Advisory Board). Their most cited reason: President Trump. Nearly 69 percent of those students reported “concerns about the U.S. presidential administration” as a factor.

Since taking office in January, President Trump has issued two executive orders limiting visitors from a handful of predominantly Muslim countries. The latest order was issued this month and replaced an initial measure that was put on hold by a federal court. The new order imposes a 90-day ban on issuing new visas, including student visas, to citizens of six countries — Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. (Iraq was included in the original measure.)

Royall conducted its survey before the second order came out, yet its findings show that the impact of the president’s moves is being felt in the Middle East and beyond.

“I would have suspected that Muslim-majority countries — those specifically targeted with the initial travel ban and others that might have a heightened sensitivity to shifting sentiments in the U.S. — would have felt more dramatically the decline in interest,” said Pamela Kiecker Royall, head of research for Royall. “The interesting thing is a decline in interest across all nations.”

Rounding out the top five reasons cited for lower interest were worries about travel restrictions, at 55 percent; safety concerns, at 53 percent; cost, at 50 percent; and prejudice or discrimination, at 48 percent.

The report, “Effect of the Current Political Environment on International Student Enrollment,” surveyed 2,104 international students in February from a pool of about 30,000 high-school students who had made inquiries about applying to American colleges.

Not surprisingly, students from predominantly Muslim countries were more likely than students from other countries to worry about travel restrictions and prejudice or discrimination. And female students tended to be more concerned, with 37 percent of women reporting that the current political climate lowered their interest, while 27 percent of men reported the same.

One finding administrators may especially want to pay attention to is that 43 percent of students from India, a key U.S. market, reported less interest, the highest percentage of any country aside from Canada, at 51 percent.

Ms. Kiecker Royall suspects the decline in interest among Indian students may be the result of high-profile cases in which young professionals came to study or work in the United States but returned to India because they found it more hospitable. The survey was conducted before the shooting of two Indian men in Kansas last month, an incident covered widely internationally that could further complicate whether Indian students continue to seek American degrees.

While it remains unclear if students’ worries will translate into enrollment troubles for colleges, several institutions already have reported a drop in overseas applications. Thirty-nine percent of institutions say they have had a decline in applications at the undergraduate and graduate level, according to a survey by Aacrao, an association of registrars and admission officers. The survey, which more than 250 institutions responded to, also found that 35 percent of colleges experienced an increase in applicants and 26 percent had no change in applicant numbers.

Colleges said that the largest declines in applications came from countries in the Middle East, which sent more than 100,000 students to American colleges in 2015-16.

Colleges can’t control world events, Ms. Kiecker Royall said, but they can focus on sharpening their messaging to convey they are welcoming to international students. Her firm’s survey, for example, found that prospective international students relied most on college websites and emails for information about studying overseas.

“Most of the messaging students consider as they look at colleges and universities is controlled by the institutions,” Ms. Kiecker Royall said. “The degree to which schools can be more nimble than they have been historically with their websites and make that a priority will determine how successful they are in conveying the right message to international student prospects.”

Vimal Patel covers graduate education. Follow him on Twitter @vimalpatel232, or write to him at vimal.patel@chronicle.com.